Presentation Meeting 4 Zurhold


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Roman Zurhold, Project Director, Deutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH (dena)

The German Energy Turnaround. 12th of October 2012, Berlin

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Ownership structure of dena.

dena Federal Republic of Germany

50 %

Represented by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi)

KfW Bankengruppe

26 %

Allianz SE

8%

Deutsche Bank AG

8%

in concert with: The Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection (BMELV) The Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)

8%

DZ BANK AG

The Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development (BMVBS)

Management Stephan Kohler – Chief Executive Andreas Jung

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dena’s Expertise and Activities.

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Political Framework.

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Energy and climate policy targets of the European Union. Central targets for 2020 within the scope of the energy and climate policy strategy: Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20 % compared to the level of 1990 (30 %, if other industrialised countries commit to comparable reductions). An increase in the use of renewable energy sources to 20 % of the total energy production. An energy consumption reduction of 20 % through improvements in energy efficiency.

Source: anghy / photocase.com

Member states have different subsidy instruments for expanding the use of renewable energy sources.

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The energy policy targets of the Federal Government (I). The energy concept of the Federal Government formulates guidelines for a complete strategy until the year 2050, describing the path leading to the age of renewable energy sources. Central targets and measures: Source: BMWi 2011

Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 40 % up to 2020 and by 80 % up to 2050 (compared to 1990). Reduction of primary energy consumption by 20 % up to 2020 and by 50 % up to 2050 (compare to 2008) and full utilisation of the efficiency potentials in private homes and the public sector. Increase in energy productivity by an average of 2.1 %. Reduction of the heating requirements in buildings (compared to 2008) of 20 % by 2020. Doubling of the energy renovation rate to 2 % to achieve an almost climateneutral building inventory by 2050. EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS.

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The energy policy targets of the Federal Government (II). Reduction of power consumption by 10 % up to 2020 and by 25 % up to 2050 (compared to 2008). Electric vehicles in Germany: 1 million by 2020, 5 million by 2030. Increase the proportion of renewable energies used in the gross final energy consumption of 18 % by 2020 and 60 % by 2050. Proportion of gross energy consumption provided by renewable energy power generation: at least 35 % by 2020 and 80 % by 2050. Expansion of offshore wind utilisation to 10 GW by 2020 and 25 GW by 2030 and accelerated expansion of the power grid infrastructure (North-South transmission lines). Legislation in 2011: Acceleration of the expansion of the power grid infrastructure. Legislation in 2011: Phasing out of the use of nuclear energy in Germany by 2022. EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS.

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General Challenge: Optimization of the entire Energy System. Demand Side

Generation

Energy Storage

•Raising energy efficiency potentials •Energy services •Deployment of Smart Metering

• Expansion RES

•Expansion energy storage

Energy saving potentials Demand Side Management

• Carbon Capture and Storage

• Expansion CHP • High-efficient Conventional generation

Contribution to a flexible energy system

Grids • Energy efficient transmission and distribution grids • Expansion of the grids • Smart Grids

Energy efficiency along the supply chain System optimization: consideration of the supply- and demand-side Use of high-efficient technologies, innovative strategies and market-solutions EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS.

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Energy efficiency – the key to a secure and sustainable supply of energy.

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Energy efficiency – the key to a secure and sustainable supply of energy. 

Rational energy usage (demand side)



Efficient conversion of primary energy into final energy (supply side)

1.

Climate protection: Achievement of the national and European climate protection targets for 2020 and the G8 targets for 2050.

2.

Cost reduction: To compensate for increasing energy costs.

3.

Security of supply: Reduction of energy imports, reduction of risks in energy supply.

4.

Tomorrow's market: improved competitiveness and innovation, opportunities for cutting-edge German technology.

5.

A high proportion of regenerative energy supply is only possible with full utilisation of the efficiency potentials. EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS.

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Germany as an example: Commercial energy saving potential by 2020*.

Total: 340 TWh (= 13 % of the total energy consumption in 2008 of 2.522 TWh). Saving of 33.2 billion € in 2020 (based on current energy prices, total energy costs for 2008: 263.93 billion €). * Values rounded, basis of comparison is 2008, dena calculation"Ambitious energy efficiency scenario“ as per the targets set in the 2010 Energy Concept. Sources: dena, EWI, GWS, Prognos, AG energy balances, BMW energy statistics, EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. 12 2010 Energy Concept of the Federal Government.

Industrial and commercial energy efficiency: Increasing energy costs as a competetive factor. Energy costs of 32.6 billion € in the commercial sector in 2009 Corresponds to a price increase of 58 % compared to 1998 (20.6 billion €): Energiepreisentwicklung Industrie

Energiepreise in %

350,00 300,00 250,00 200,00

Heizöl

150,00

Erdgas

100,00

Strom

50,00 0,00

Source: Initiative EnergieEffizienz/ dena

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Industrial and commercial energy-saving potentials. Average energy-saving potentials in cross-sector technologies, in percent:

Source: Initiative EnergieEffizienz/ dena

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Energy efficiency in buildings – boundary conditions and potentials.

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Germanys Final Energy Consumption. lighting

heating

Commercial, public and residential buildings account for some 40 % of total final energy demand (2010)

hot water cooling communication technologie other production process process cold mechanical energy (incl. transport)

(inkl. Verkehr)

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The energy strategy of the German Federal Government (for the building sector) – announced in autumn 2010. the existing building stock should be nearly climate neutral (by 2050) heating demand should be reduced by 20% by 2020 the primary energy demand should be reduced by 80% by 2050 increasing the share of renewable energies (heating demand) significantly doubling the rate of refurbishments from currently 1% to 2%  development of a refurbishment-road map (2020-2050)

Wärme- und Primärenergiebedarf in Prozent bezogen auf 2008 [%]

Energiekonzept der Bundesregierung German energy strategy 120 100

Heat demand

80

60 40

Primary energy demand

20 0

2008

2020

2050 EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS.

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Political Instruments for Energy Efficiency in the Building Sector. energy efficiency

Legal Requirements

Promotional Programmes

Market Instruments

dena´s activities are closely linked to all three pillars and areas of activity. EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS.

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Real examples to follow – high energy savings guaranteed.

Year of construction Living area: Primary energy requirements before: after: Primary energy savings: Energy cost savings

Eichstetten

Constance

Berlin

1750, protected historic place

1959

1965

260 m²

210 m²

226 m²

202 kWh/m²a 34 kWh/m²a

251 kWh/m²a 37 kWh/m²a

217 kWh/m²a 37 kWh/m²a

83 %

85 %

83 %

2,130 €/a

4,400 €/a

3,500 €/a EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS.

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The energy turnaround challenge - system integration of renewable energies.

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Electricity consumption in Germany by consumer groups (2011).

Industrial and commercial users have the largest share of total power consumption. Source: BDEW 2012.

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Structure of electricity generation in Germany in 2011.

Total: 612.1 billion kWh Energy source proportion in previous year 2010 in brackets Source: AGEB Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen e.V.

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Gross electricity production in Germany by energy source for the 1st six months of 2012.

Total gross electricity production in the 1st six months of 2012: 281.5 billion kWh*

Proportion of renewable energies in 2011: 20,1 % *preliminary values, partially estimated, excluding industrial power generation for own-use. Sources: BDEW; AG energy balances, as of 19th of July 2012

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Volatile feeding of renewable energies results in additional public costs – wind energy as an example.

Source: RWE Innogy GmbH

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Installed power, secured power and load (Jan. 2011). Other renewable

51,1

50,8

Non-usable power

Water power Other

9,7 6,3

6,4 4,8 5,1 4,8 7,2 3,5 16,0

Revisions Dropouts Reserve for system DL

Natural gas

22,1

Hard coal

29,5

Secured power 93.1 GW

12,5 Load

Remaining power

25,4 80,6

Lignite coal

21,2

Nuclear energy

20,3

16,9

installed power

secured power

160.2 GW

19,3

load

90.1 GW

* Power balance preview January 2011, 19:00h based on AtG 2010 as per System Adequacy Forecast 2011-2025 (entso-e) from Autumn 2010 Sources: entso-e; BDEW 2012 (calculations based on the dena data on secured power from individual energy sources). EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS.

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Grid expansion of the high-voltage and distribution grids.

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Power plant sites in Germany >100 MW and wind energy. Existing fossil or nuclear generation capacities are located mainly close to load-centers in western and southern Germany.

RES-expansion (mainly windenergy) leads to a regional shift of generation capacities towards northern Germany. This trend will be intensified by the planned Offshore-WindEnergy expansion.

Existing transmission grids meet their limits particularly on northsouth and east-westlines, when an efficient RES-integration is intended. Source: Umweltbundesamt (UBA) 2012

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Flexibility option /transit capacity: Expanding the electricity grid. German Network Development Plan 2012: Optimizing the current grid: 4,400 km

Building new lines: 3,800 km Approximated investment costs: 20 billion € until 2022 27 billion € until 2032

Source: NEP 2012, Scenario B.

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Grid expansion status: Overview of EnLAG transmission lines. As of August 2012, 214 km (approx. 12 %) of the 1,834 km of the 24 EnLAG lines have been implemented. 2 lines already implemented and in operation, 4 with partial sections completed. Predicted new construction in 2012: 35 km 16 intended lines in various stages of approval Feasibility studies currently underway for 2 projects. ÜNB expects completion of the first half of the planned lines by 2016 (963 km of 1,834 km). 15 of the planned 24 projects delayed, with delays of 1 - 5 years! Source: Bundesnetzagentur, as of August 2012.

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Bildgröße 9,74 cm x 24,56 cm an den Hilfslinien ausrichten und weiße Linie in den Vordergrund bringen

Flexibility Instruments.

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Flexibility Options – Demand Side Management (DSM). Technical Potential

Yearly consumption of sector [TWh]

Sector Industry Trade and commerce Households Sum Economical potential

HH

Ind_Processes

256.0 75.5 139.5 471.0

Yearly consumption Technical potential of DSM-capable for load cuts [GW] processes [TWh] 102.6 5.8 29.6 2.1 85.1 7.3 217.3 15.2

Utilization by modified framework

TCS

HH

Ind_Processes

Ind_c. section

Clarif. plants

EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS. Source: dena Grid Study II, 2010

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Classification of energy storage by area of use and provision of power.

Source: dena

Currently only pump storage, compressed air storage and hydrogen applications can be used as high-performance storage technology. Further energy storage capacity and technologies are required. EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS.

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Overview of the power to gas process.

Erneuerbaren Strom erzeugen und in das Stromnetz einspeisen

Wasserstoff mithilfe von Strom erzeugen und in das Gasnetz einspeisen; ggf. aus Wasserstoff und Kohlendioxid synthetisches Erdgas erzeugen und in das Gasnetz einspeisen.

Wasserstoff oder synthetisches Erdgas im Erdgasnetz und den dazugehörigen Erdgasspeichern speichern

Das Gas zur Stromerzeugung oder für Endkundenanwendungen nutzen, z.B. zur Wärmeerzeugung oder als Kraftstoff

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Conclusions.

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Energy efficiency must be a fundamental element of the energy turnaround. . Efficiency at all stages of the value-adding chain. Efficient expansion using REG technologies, with harmonization of the expansion planning of the Federal States. Synchronisation of further REG expansion with expansion of the infrastructures and energy storage systems.

http://www.iitf.at/forschung/innovationsforschung/

Fundamental reform of the EEG needed for this. Energy-efficient building renovation. Renewal of the fossil fuel power station inventory. Coordination of the energy turnaround with European neighbours. We are all responsible for the success of the energy turnaround. EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS.

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Efficiency – our focus.

Thank you. www.dena.de b2b.dena.de EFFICIENCY - OUR FOCUS.

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