Neighborhood Recovery Rates
Resiliency of New Orleanians Shown in Neighborhood Repopulation Numbers Allison Plyer, Greater New Orleans Community Data Center Released: July 1, 2010
Five years after Katrina, 66 of New Orleans’ 73 neighborhoods have recovered well over half of the population they had before the levees failed, as indicated by households receiving mail in the Valassis Residential and Business database. In September 2005, the world could barely imagine that the flooded neighborhoods of New Orleans would recover so significantly. Beyond private insurance and investments, much of this recovery was fueled by federal funding in the form of rebuilding grants to underinsured homeowners and tax credits to low– income housing developers. But arguably more critical to the recovery effort were individual New Orleanians who, with the support of nonprofits and thousands of volunteers, resolved to rebuild their homes and help their neighbors do the same. Neighbors have come together and organized in ways undreamed of before the storm, and neighborhood organizations have rightfully been hailed as the heart and soul of the city’s recovery. Of the seven neighborhoods with less than half the population they had prior to Katrina, three are public housing sites that have been demolished to make way for new mixed–income housing. Eight neighborhoods now have a larger number of active households than they did prior to the levee breaches. Seven of these neighborhoods largely did not flood because they are on the West Bank or in the “sliver by the river.” Gert Town did experience severe flooding, but has more active households than before the storm due to the revitalization of several multi–unit buildings that were vacant when Katrina struck. However, over the last two years, as residents moved back into their rehabilitated homes or into new or rehabbed apartment buildings in flooded parts of New Orleans’ east bank, the consolidation of the city’s population in areas that did not flood has started to reverse itself. Twenty–one neighborhoods lost active households from June 2008 to June 2010. Many of these are in parts of the city that did not flood such as the west bank and the “sliver by the river.” Neighborhoods vary greatly as to their resources and capacity for organizing, and it will be important for the City Hall to provide neighborhoods with the tools they need to participate in land use decisions going forward. In addition, market conditions vary neighborhood by neighborhood. The New Orleans Redevelopment Authority and the state’s Office of Community Development should not apply a one–size– fits–all approach to deploying Road Home properties. Remaining blight will not be easily remedied by putting Road Home properties on the market. In neighborhoods with weak market conditions, such properties could be scooped up by speculators with no intention of revitalizing them. In the long or medium term, the oil disaster may have a dampening impact on housing markets in New Orleans. Decisionmakers should begin to develop policies that guard against the potential for absentee owners to acquire and “sit on” New Orleans’ historic housing stock. Disaster Community Development Block Grants still held by the state as well as federal funds received and applied for by the City should be used to further revitalize New Orleans neighborhoods by reducing blight and building a public transportation system that connects neighborhoods to work centers.
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Table 1: Households Actively Receiving Mail by Neighborhood in New Orleans Neighborhood Algiers Point Audubon B.W. Cooper Bayou St. John Behrman Black Pearl Broadmoor Bywater Neighborhood Central Business District Central City Neighborhood City Park Desire Area Desire Development Dillard Dixon East Carrollton East Riverside Fairgrounds Filmore Fischer Project Florida Area Florida Development French Quarter Freret Garden District Gentilly Terrace Gentilly Woods Gert Town Hollygrove Holy Cross Iberville Development Irish Channel Lake Catherine Lake Terrace & Oaks Lakeshore/Lake Vista Lakeview Neighborhood Lakewood Leonidas Little Woods Lower Garden District Lower Ninth Ward Neighborhood Marigny Marlyville/Fountainebleau McDonogh Mid-City Neighborhood Milan Milneburg
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June 2005 1,322 7,576 1,269 2,292 3,878 1,115 3,139 2,570 1,316 8,175 1,670 1,419 136 2,608 631 2,286 1,539 3,091 2,831 300 1,351 460 4,106 1,014 1,216 4,417 1,512 1,513 2,751 2,240 830 1,973 733 688 1,608 4,711 786 3,726 16,504 4,406 5,363 2,133 3,010 1,270 6,634 3,452 2,273
June 2008 1,351 7,344 357 1,921 3,697 1,107 2,551 2,091 1,585 6,405 1,534 456 109 1,728 453 2,275 1,601 2,843 1,345 294 457 1 3,917 671 1,192 3,380 764 1,411 1,772 774 815 2,002 420 653 1,424 1,912 590 3,521 8,907 4,073 601 2,079 2,706 1,323 4,652 2,720 1,008
June 2009 1,417 7,292 345 1,976 3,832 1,082 2,324 2,165 1,939 6,233 1,585 532 128 1,767 529 2,276 1,472 2,919 1,480 291 523 2 3,936 789 1,192 3,589 906 1,547 1,889 1,061 801 1,913 420 657 1,482 2,358 593 3,485 11,385 4,295 1,017 2,119 2,752 1,281 4,998 2,718 1,342
June 2010 1,429 7,319 379 2,027 3,670 1,082 2,378 2,181 2,060 6,417 1,600 582 230 2,040 565 2,244 1,474 3,000 1,686 292 614 2 3,888 839 1,179 3,745 979 1,545 1,995 1,226 646 1,907 439 675 1,495 2,774 624 3,288 12,751 4,542 1,271 2,128 2,792 1,279 6,217 2,835 1,450
% Recovery June 2010 108% 97% 30% 88% 95% 97% 76% 85% 157% 78% 96% 41% 169% 78% 90% 98% 96% 97% 60% 97% 45% 0% 95% 83% 97% 85% 65% 102% 73% 55% 78% 97% 60% 98% 93% 59% 79% 88% 77% 103% 24% 100% 93% 101% 94% 82% 64%
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Table 1: Households Actively Receiving Mail by Neighborhood in New Orleans (continued)
Neighborhood Navarre New Aurora/English Turn Old Aurora Pines Village Plum Orchard Pontchartrain Park Read Blvd East Read Blvd West Seventh Ward St. Anthony St. Bernard Area St. Claude St. Roch St. Thomas Development Tall Timbers/Brechtel Touro Treme'/Lafitte Tulane/Gravier U.S. Naval Support Area Uptown Neighborhood Viavant/Venetian Isles Village de l'est West End West Lake Forest West Riverside Whitney
June 2005 1,528 2,127 6,241 1,864 2,488 1,024 3,099 2,107 6,470 2,450 1,936 4,490 4,735 386 5,504 1,829 3,556 1,830 1,404 3,329 616 3,948 2,711 3,822 2,838 1,006
June 2008 972 2,198 6,215 862 1,210 389 2,162 1,104 4,665 1,088 446 2,957 2,804 627 4,679 1,803 2,520 1,215 1,106 3,274 383 2,322 1,218 1,276 2,864 1,007
June 2009 1,153 2,123 6,187 1,161 1,407 507 2,307 1,275 4,939 1,395 420 3,276 3,105 862 4,710 1,752 2,291 1,237 1,041 3,202 328 2,642 1,511 1,399 2,720 995
June 2010 1,210 2,096 6,131 1,189 1,517 566 2,493 1,430 5,116 1,510 467 3,454 3,255 1,091 4,811 1,761 2,247 1,684 1,016 3,201 380 2,701 1,702 1,570 2,706 1,009
% Recovery June 2010 79% 99% 98% 64% 61% 55% 80% 68% 79% 62% 24% 77% 69% 283% 87% 96% 63% 92% 72% 96% 62% 68% 63% 41% 95% 100%
Source: GNO Community Data Center analysis of Valassis Residential and Business Database. Note: The USPS database underlying this data set is maintained for the purpose of delivering mail and determining letter carrier workload‚ not tracking repopulation post-disaster. On a regular basis‚ the USPS audits the addresses on every route‚ changing the status of addresses to reflect whether the households are actively receiving mail‚ or are vacant/unoccupied. As such‚ caution should be used analyzing changes over time. See our research note from 2007 on Using U.S. Postal Service Delivery Statistics To Track the Repopulation of New Orleans & the Metropolitan Area (http://gnocdc.s3.amazonaws.com/reports/GNOCDC_research_note_May07.pdf) and our technical documentation Valassis Lists Data as an Indicator of Population Recovery in the New Orleans Area (http://www.gnocdc.org/repopulation/ValassisTechDoc.pdf) for more details.
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Percent Recovery by Neighborhood in New Orleans 0
Percent of June 2005 addresses that were actively receiving mail in June 2010
1
2 Miles
0% - 49% 50% - 59% 60% - 69% Lake Catherine
70% - 79% 80% - 89%
Lake Pontchartrain
90% - 99%
Village de l'est
100% +
Little Woods
Read Blvd East Lake Terrace & Oaks Lakeshore/Lake Vista
West End
Jefferson Parish
St. Anthony Filmore
Lakeview City Park Navarre
Mid-City
Hollygrove
BW Cooper
Broadmoor Freret
Milan
Tulane/ Gravier
Gentilly Terrace
St. Roch
Iberville French Dev Quarter Central Business District
Central City
Garden District Uptown Touro Irish Channel East Riverside West Riverside
Read Blvd West
Viavant/Venetian Isles
Plum Orchard
Desire Area Desire Dev
Seventh Ward
Bayou St. John
Gert Town
Audubon
Dillard
Tremé/Lafitte
Marlyville/ Leonidas Fountainebleau East Carrollton Black Pearl
St. Bernard Area
Pines Village
Gentilly Woods
Fairgrounds
Lakewood Dixon
Milneburg
West Lake Forest Pontchartrain Park
Florida Area
Florida Dev
St. Claude
Lower Ninth Ward
Marigny Bywater
U.S. Naval Support Area McWhitney Donogh
Lower Garden District
St. Thomas Dev
Holy Cross
M is sissi
Algiers Point
Fischer Project
ppi
R iv
St. Bernard Parish
er
Behrman Old Aurora
Tall Timbers/Brechtel
New Aurora/English Turn
Jefferson Parish Data driven by:
Source Citation: GNO Community Data Center analysis of Valassis Residential and Business Database. View repopulation data by census block at www.gnocdc.org/repopulation/.
Change in Number of Active Addresses by Neighborhood in New Orleans 0
Change in Number of Active Addresses from June 2008 to June 2010
1
2 Miles
- 50 or more - 1 - 49 + 0 - 99 Lake Catherine
+ 100 - 199 + 200 - 299
Lake Pontchartrain
+ 300 or more
Village de l'est
Little Woods
Read Blvd East Lake Terrace & Oaks
West Lake Forest
Lakeshore/Lake Vista
West End
Jefferson Parish
St. Anthony
City Park Navarre
Mid-City
BW Cooper
Broadmoor Freret
Tulane/ Gravier
Gentilly Terrace
Desire Dev St. Roch
Iberville Dev French Quarter Central Business District
Florida Area
Garden Uptown District Touro Irish Channel East Riverside West Riverside
Viavant/Venetian Isles
Florida Dev
St. Claude Marigny
Lower Garden District
Lower Ninth Ward
Bywater
Holy Cross
M is sissi
Algiers Point
Central City
Milan
Read Blvd West Plum Orchard
Desire Area
Seventh Ward
Bayou St. John
Gert Town
Audubon
Dillard
Tremé/Lafitte
Marlyville/ Leonidas Fountainebleau East Carrollton Black Pearl
St. Bernard Area
Pines Village
Gentilly Woods
Fairgrounds
Lakewood
Hollygrove
Milneburg
Filmore
Lakeview
Dixon
Pontchartrain Park
Mc- Whitney Donogh Fischer Project
St. Thomas Dev
U.S. Naval Support Area
ppi
R iv
St. Bernard Parish
er
Behrman Old Aurora
Tall Timbers/Brechtel
New Aurora/English Turn
Jefferson Parish Data driven by:
Source Citation: GNO Community Data Center analysis of Valassis Residential and Business Database. View repopulation data by census block at www.gnocdc.org/repopulation/.
About Various Sources of U.S. Postal Service Data The Greater New Orleans Community Data Center (GNOCDC) relies on three different sources for USPS data‚ all of which are based on the USPS Address Management Services (AMS) database. 1. GNOCDC publishes data on blighted and unoccupied addresses for the City of New Orleans and a few comparison cities. The source for this blight data is the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)‚ which makes it available for free from the HUD website. HUD’s data is aggregated to the census tract level and is available quarterly beginning with December 2005 data. Beginning in (but not prior to) 2008 residential address counts are available separate from commercial address counts. The HUD data is unique from other sources of U.S. Postal Service data because it includes tabulations of No–Stat addresses‚ which we use as a proxy for blight. HUD maintains an archive of its U.S. Postal Service data on its website. 2. GNOCDC publishes ZIP code level data on addresses actively receiving mail for the New Orleans metro area. The source for this data is the Delivery Statistics Product‚ which the U.S. Postal Service makes available to the public for a small processing fee. The Delivery Statistics data is aggregated by ZIP Code‚ with separate tabulations for residential and commercial addresses. The Delivery Statistics Product includes tabulations of active and vacant addresses‚ but does not include tabulations of No–Stat addresses. The U.S. Postal Service does not maintain an archive of its Delivery Statistics data‚ although some private resellers do. 3. GNOCDC publishes census block level and neighborhood level data on addresses actively receiving mail in the City of New Orleans. The source for this data is the Valassis Residential and Business Database‚ which must be purchased from Valassis Direct Mail Inc. Valassis is one of only a few companies nationwide that qualifies to receive weekly data feeds from the U.S. Postal Services’ Address Management Services (AMS) database. The Valassis Database is unique from other sources of U.S. Postal Service data because it provides address level data. Although the address level data cannot be released to the public‚ GNOCDC developed a robust in–house geocoding process in order to generate extremely accurate census–block and neighborhood level data. The Valassis Database includes active and vacant addresses‚ but does not include No–Stat addresses. There are slight differences between the Valassis Database and the HUD and Delivery Statistics data. The Valassis Database includes a record for each residence that is part of a “drop stop” (e.g each dorm room in a college dormitory). The Delivery Statistics data and the HUD data‚ in contrast‚ count each drop stop as only one address regardless of the number of residences at the drop stop. This difference explains why the Valassis Database has a few thousand more addresses than the HUD and ZIP code counts. There are also slight timing differences between the sources. You can find more detailed information on this data in the following publications: •
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The following Technical Documentation provides a comparison of the counts of active residential addresses generated from these three sources of U.S. Postal Service data: Valassis Lists Data as an Indicator of Population Recovery in the New Orleans Area. Ortiz and Plyer. 2008. http://www.gnocdc.org/repopulation/ValassisTechDoc.pdf The following Research Note explains why U.S. Postal Service Delivery Statistics are useful for tracking repopulation in a post–disaster context, and documents some of the limitations of the data as a measure of repopulation: Using U.S. Postal Service Delivery Statistics To Track the Repopulation of New Orleans & the Metropolitan Area. Plyer and Bonaguro. 2007. https://gnocdc.s3.amazonaws.com/reports/GNOCDC_research_note_May07.pdf
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This paper reviews literature from the fields of demography and other disciplines to identify available administrative data sets including USPS data that can form the basis of sound, relevant, and timely county–level population estimates following a catastrophic U.S. event: Using administrative data to estimate population displacement and resettlement following a catastrophic U.S. disaster. Plyer, Bonaguro, and Hodges. 2009. http://www.springerlink.com/content/27r338422847q807/
